10 Feb 2011, BDFM news - SA is near the limit of its timber production capacity, warn forestry experts. It is a looming problem masked by lower demand, especially from the construction industry, says Cori Ham, a lecturer at Stellenbosch University’s department of forest & wood science.

The forestry industry wants to expand, says Roy Southey, chairman of industry body Forestry SA’s marketing arm, the Wood Foundation. But the number of trees that can be planted is limited by climatic conditions.

Constraints include other land uses such as crop farming and conservation. These have helped drive the area under commercial forests down from a peak of over 1,5mha in the late 1990s to 1,28mha in 2009, or about 1% of SA’s total land area. All indigenous forests — 300000ha in total — are now conservation areas, says Southey.

Land claims from local communities are also putting pressure on the industry, says Southey. In its report “Forestry 2030 Roadmap” the department of agriculture, forestry & fisheries concedes this. “About 65% of privately owned plantations are under land claims and this will have an impact on the sector, especially in terms of securing the resource for future operations,” says the report.

In 2009, 86% of plantations by area were not state-owned. The forestry, paper and packaging companies Sappi and Mondi together accounted for about a third of privately owned plantations.

Ham says a further 100000ha in the Eastern Cape and 40000ha in KwaZulu Natal are suited to forestry. But it is not a quick solution. Southey says that to clear water and other environmental hurdles would take 10 years if “fast-tracked” and up to 20 years at the normal pace of approval. Then it would be up to another 20 years before harvesting could begin.

Forestry has also been criticised for high water usage. This was justified in the past, but no longer, says Southey. He says extensive studies have enabled the forestry industry to refine its practices and, planted correctly, forests pose no environmental threat. Over 75% of SA’s forests are managed according to standards set by a global industry watchdog, the Forest Stewardship Council .

The department’s report confirms his assertion, noting that a well-managed forestry operation has positive effects on water quality, surface run-off, evaporation and topsoil. Forestry accounts for 2,7% of SA’s water use, says the report.

Where forestry does have a big impact is by employing almost 170000 people . But that number’s unlikely to increase.

A rise in timber product imports is inevitable. “When the economy begins to pick up there will be a shortage of sawn timber,” predicts Southey. Sawn products account for 30% of timber used.

Shortages will inevitably disturb the favourable timber trade balance SA enjoys. In 2009 timber product exports — primarily pulp and paper — of R12,5bn exceeded timber product imports of R9,6bn by a comfortable margin.

There could also be an impact on employment. “To import logs is very expensive,” says Mondi forest strategy manager Winston Smith. “It’s more economical to import finished products.”

An inability to fully meet domestic demand could not come at a worse time. Canadian research firm International Wood Markets’ 2011 outlook predicts that surging Chinese demand could more than double timber prices over the next four years.